Grain and livestock markets head toward July with fewer geopolitical fireworks but no shortage of uncertainty. On this week’s Weekly Market Roundup, host Steve White talked with Heather Ramsey of The ARC Group and Ross Baldwin of AgMarket.net about weather risk, grain fundamentals, biofuels demand, and the outlook for beef as the Fourth of July approaches.
Ramsey said grain markets are showing what she calls “cautious optimism” after early‑week pressure gave way to modest midweek strength. While seasonal tendencies typically don’t favor rallies this time of year, she noted that markets have already seen a healthy pullback and are now watching whether small supportive headlines can turn into something more meaningful.
The challenge, she said, is the lack of a widespread supply problem. While pockets of the Corn Belt are too dry or too wet, most areas are in good shape. For weather to truly move markets, Ramsey said issues must be widespread and persistent—and then analyzed for weeks before traders react.
“All weather is local,” Ramsey explained, adding that what producers see in their own fields often takes far longer to show up in market pricing.
Baldwin agreed, saying markets appear to be shifting back toward fundamentals after months of headline‑driven trade. With plenty of old‑crop corn still needing to move, weak spreads, and crude oil trading below key technical levels, he said there’s little reason for markets to get bullish without a clear weather threat.
He added that while corn has found some support after a sharp washout, managed money remains cautious, and the calendar alone makes sustained rallies difficult without a catalyst.
The conversation also touched on Washington’s renewed discussion of year‑round E15. Baldwin said expanded E15 sales would be supportive for corn demand, but unless it becomes a true mandate like E10, it’s unlikely to be a near‑term game changer.
Soybeans drew particular interest, with Ramsey pointing to strong soy oil values tied to biofuels and potentially overlooked opportunities in soymeal. She said soybeans appear undervalued relative to the products they produce, especially if global buyers shift meal demand toward the U.S. amid ongoing uncertainty in Argentina’s crushing sector.
On the livestock side, Baldwin said the beef market continues to impress. Cash cattle bids near $260, tight slaughter numbers, and beef production running well below last year are keeping beef values supported, even as packer margins remain under pressure.
“I don’t see a path for cheaper beef prices for the U.S. consumer,” Baldwin said, noting that tight supplies are likely to persist into 2027.
The show wrapped up on a lighter note with Fourth of July grilling plans—burgers, ribeyes, ribs, and brisket—but the underlying takeaway was serious: quieter markets still require attention. As White noted, holiday weeks can’t become marketing blind spots when weather, demand, and policy shifts can still move quickly.