Cattle Call is an original production of the Nebraska Rural Radio Association and is presented by Blue Chip Herefords in Oxford, Nebraska.
Quick Read
- Spring or fall? A viewer’s question about when cattle markets typically peak sparked a discussion about changing seasonal patterns.
- Shifting supplies: Later calving dates and heavier cattle may be pushing the tightest fed cattle supplies from February and March into May and June.
- Herd rebuilding: Retaining more replacement heifers could further tighten near-term cattle supplies and alter traditional seasonal patterns.
Traditional seasonal patterns in the cattle market may be shifting as producers change calving schedules, raise heavier animals and begin rebuilding the U.S. cow herd.
Brad Kooima of KKV Trading in Sioux Center, Iowa, says those changes could be moving the tightest period for fed cattle supplies later into the spring.
Speaking on Cattle Call, Kooima addressed a viewer’s question about why cattle markets sometimes reach annual highs in the spring rather than the fall.
He cautioned that seasonal charts are useful but have become less dependable, particularly since the disruptions of COVID-19.
“First of all, I should say one thing about seasonality. I like to say, if all you traded was the seasonals, you would likely not be successful. The seasonals are a guide.”
Historically, fed cattle supplies often tightened in February and March as yearlings finished moving through feedlots before the next group of calves was ready for slaughter.
But Kooima says later calving dates and the industry’s emphasis on producing heavier cattle may be changing that timing.
“I think you’ve actually pushed that back actually more into maybe a May-June where you might have your tightest supply because we’re all going to make these calves as big as a house, right?”
Herd rebuilding could further complicate the seasonal picture.
Kooima believes some heifer retention is already underway. He suggested that lower feeder cattle prices could encourage producers to keep more replacement heifers rather than send them to feedlots, temporarily reducing the number of cattle available for slaughter.
That could tighten supplies toward the end of the first quarter of 2027.
“So to me, you further give you a better chance that maybe we do have tighter numbers going into the end of that first quarter, which I continue to remain kind of friendly for.”